MCARI

The Myanmar Conflict Monitor

Reports, 2021–2025

  • Conflict in Myanmar, 2021–2025: MCARI Technical Report

    MCARI data, release v1.1 · Lead author: Nyein Pyae Sone

    This summary sets out seven main findings on the course of the conflict in Myanmar across the five years from February 2021 to December 2025.

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  • Five Years of Conflict in Myanmar, 2021–2025: What the Data Shows

    MCARI data, release v1.1 · Lead author: Nyein Pyae Sone

    Over the five-year period from 2021 to 2025, Myanmar's conflict shifted from street protests into full-scale armed war, evolving into intense territorial disputes before taking a distinct turn in control dynamics by 2025. Across these five years, a total of 81,327 incidents and 80,075 fatalities were documented, including 16,830 civilian deaths. Given the operational and verification constraints on the ground, these figures represent a conservative baseline of the true toll.

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Latest Issue: key findings

The Myanmar Conflict Monitor — Q2 2021

Q2 2021 · 1 April – 30 June 2021

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  1. 15.8

    On a daily average basis, protests and civil unrest fell by 60% from 49.9 events per day in the first quarter to 20.2 in the second quarter, while armed conflict rose more than fivefold from 3.1 to 15.8 events per day.

    49.920.23.115.8
  2. 1,137

    Military and pro-coup forces accounted for 1,137 deaths (56.7%), and non-civilians formed the majority of recorded fatalities. Conversely, 644 civilian fatalities were recorded (32.1%), representing a sharp decline from the 76.1% civilian share observed in the first quarter.

    1,137644
  3. 91

    Unlike the first quarter, which was characterized by extreme spikes in fatalities concentrated across a handful of single days, lethal violence during this period became diffuse, with deaths recorded on every one of the 91 days.