Research & Analysis
Beyond the Battlefield
Documenting the human cost of Myanmar's conflict beyond battlefield statistics — displacement, population restructuring, and the collapse of civilian institutions that never appear in conflict event databases.
Conflict Data Alone Is Not Enough
Standard conflict databases record battles, airstrikes, and casualties. But they cannot capture the full scope of what war does to a society — the families displaced from ancestral farmland, the villages emptied by sustained bombardment, the census records that no longer reflect who lives where.
MCARI's socio-economic research fills this gap. By cross-referencing official population surveys, census records, and subnational field reports, we construct a picture of Myanmar's demographic restructuring that goes beyond the event log.
For humanitarian organizations, this data informs resource allocation. For policymakers, it reveals the long-term stability risks of population displacement. For researchers, it provides a baseline for understanding post-conflict recovery.
What standard databases track
- Armed clashes & battles
- Airstrikes & drone attacks
- Casualties & fatalities
- Actor movements & territorial control
What we add
- Internal displacement & migration patterns
- Population restructuring by region
- Census discrepancies & data gaps
- Civilian infrastructure collapse
- Long-term demographic implications
Current Publications
- Research PaperDiasporaDisplacement & Migration
30 January 2026
Analysis of the Myanmar Diaspora in the United States
(1980-2025): Trends, Triggers, and Policy Impacts
An empirical study of Myanmar diaspora communities in the United States — examining settlement patterns, demographic composition, and the political and humanitarian dimensions of forced migration following the 2021 military coup. The research draws on community surveys and official immigration data to construct a systematic profile of the diaspora's scale and structure.
- Format
- Bilingual PDF Research Report
- Language
- English / Myanmar
- Coverage
- United States
- Data Source
- Community Surveys + Immigration Data
- Research PaperHumanitarian Aid
24 October 2025
The Collapse of Aid
A Quantitative Analysis of the 2025 Humanitarian Funding Crisis in Myanmar
A comparative analysis of Myanmar's humanitarian landscape across 2024 and 2025, examining the cascading effects of international aid reductions on civilian populations in active conflict zones. The study quantifies the gap between documented humanitarian need and available response capacity, with subnational breakdowns across the most affected states and regions.
- Format
- Bilingual PDF Research Report
- Language
- English / Myanmar
- Coverage
- Every state and region
- Study Period
- 2024 vs. 2025 Comparative
- Research PaperDisplacement & MigrationPopulation & Census
29 August 2025
The Great Displacement
State Collapse and Population Restructuring in Post-Coup Myanmar (2019 vs. 2024)
A comprehensive analysis of internal migration patterns, population restructuring, and census discrepancies across Myanmar. This study compares the 2019 national census against the State Administration Council's October 2024 population survey to evaluate the scale of displacement driven by the military conflict since 2021 and its long-term demographic implications.
- 18.9 million
- People the 2024 census did not count, against the 2019 baseline
- 37%
- Governance gap
- 54%
- National census coverage
- Format
- Bilingual PDF Research Report
- Language
- English / Myanmar
- Coverage
- Every state and region
- Data Source
- SAC 2024 Survey + 2019 Census
How We Collect & Verify Data
Primary Source Aggregation
We draw on official population surveys and census records — including the 2019 national census and the State Administration Council's October 2024 population survey — alongside subnational field reports to build a demographic baseline.
Cross-Verification
Where official surveys, census records and field reports disagree, we document and analyze the discrepancy rather than averaging it away — the discrepancy itself is often the finding. Each paper states the sources behind its figures.
Subnational Disaggregation
National-level figures are disaggregated to township level where data quality permits, enabling targeted humanitarian response and granular policy analysis.
Explore Conflict Data
See MCARI's conflict data (township maps, monthly trends and The Myanmar Conflict Monitor) alongside this research.