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Forecast
MCARI Forecast Bulletin · No. 2 · November 2026
Forecast for October–December 2026
MCARI dataset, 2021–2026 edition (v1.0) · data to 30 September 2026
Conflict events are more likely to rise than fall in every state and region in October–December 2026, most in Bago-East.
4,278
events forecast nationwide (sum of the 18 most likely values)
3,758
No change (last quarter): the same if nothing changes from last quarter
16 of 18
states and regions where the last forecast's range held what was recorded
Limits on forecasting. MCARI forecasts at state and region level only. It publishes no forecast for a township or any smaller place, so that nothing it publishes could help any party choose where to strike. It does not forecast what any named person or group will do. Its forecasts are published for humanitarian and civilian-protection purposes only.
MCARI records conflict events reported in the news. Where reporting is thin, counts, and so forecasts, can be too low.
Where conflict is forecast
Most likely number of events
- <40
- 40–99
- 100–179
- 180–299
- 300+
Forecast by state and region
Events and Civilian deaths, with the 80% range, the no-change baseline and the last eight quarters
| State / region | Last eight quarters | Events, Most likely | 80% range | No change (last quarter) | Against baseline | Chance of a rise | Civilian deaths (80% range) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sagaing | 616 | 311–1,098 | 544 | ▲ 13% | 61% | 127 (33–317) | |
| Magway | 582 | 287–1,011 | 521 | ▲ 12% | 59% | 91 (25–224) | |
| Rakhine | 524 | 278–878 | 473 | ▲ 11% | 60% | 104 (29–260) | |
| Mandalay | 477 | 245–827 | 432 | ▲ 10% | 58% | 65 (17–168) | |
| Kachin | 399 | 212–710 | 369 | about the same | 56% | 63 (17–158) | |
| Kayin | 264 | 131–439 | 240 | ▲ 10% | 57% | 21 (5–55) | |
| Yangon | 251 | 128–441 | 227 | ▲ 11% | 59% | 10 (2–26) | |
| Ayeyarwady | 219 | 117–383 | 189 | ▲ 16% | 63% | 32 (8–87) | |
| Tanintharyi | 173 | 87–299 | 168 | about the same | 52% | 26 (6–66) | |
| Bago-West | 130 | 64–226 | 101 | ▲ 29% | 68% | 28 (7–75) | |
| Chin | 120 | 60–212 | 93 | ▲ 29% | 69% | 32 (8–84) | |
| Kayah | 113 | 59–192 | 96 | ▲ 18% | 63% | 39 (9–99) | |
| Bago-East | 98 | 51–169 | 73 | ▲ 34% | 73% | 48 (12–123) | |
| Mon | 83 | 41–145 | 64 | ▲ 30% | 69% | 8 (2–21) | |
| Shan-North | 79 | 41–138 | 60 | ▲ 32% | 71% | 21 (5–51) | |
| Shan-South | 76 | 39–136 | 58 | ▲ 31% | 70% | 13 (3–35) | |
| Naypyitaw | 61 | 31–104 | 43 | ▲ 42% | 76% | 2 (0–7) | |
| Shan-East | 12 | 5–22 | 7 | ▲ 71% | 76% | 4 (0–10) |
Bar: the 80% range on a scale running to the largest value in the column; dark tick: the most likely value. Sparkline: recorded events, 2024 Q4 – 2026 Q3. Chance of a rise: the probability that the quarter has more events than last quarter (the No change column).
How did the last forecast do?
The January–March 2026 forecast, made from data to 31 December 2025 (MCARI data, release v1.1)
| Inside the 80% range | Most likely | Recorded | No change (last quarter) | Mean absolute error Model / No change | Root mean square error Model / No change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Events | 16 / 18 | 4,214 | 5,793 | 5,639 | 88.1 / 40.1 | 111.8 / 54.9 |
| Civilian deaths | 15 / 18 | 743 | 940 | 1,014 | 29.3 / 28.0 | 42.7 / 40.4 |
Totals for the 18 states and regions. Events outside the 80% range: Ayeyarwady (recorded 184; range 47–169); Bago-East (recorded 294; range 72–253).
How accurate have we been?
The quarterly model behind this forecast, tested on every quarter 2022–2025, one quarter ahead, against “no change from last quarter”.
| Skill against no change | Inside the 80% range | Mean absolute error Model / No change | Root mean square error Model / No change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Events | +0.20 | 84% | 64.7 / 63.0 | 116.1 / 105.0 |
| Civilian deaths | +0.17 | 87% | 26.4 / 24.1 | 54.4 / 47.2 |
Skill: how much closer the whole forecast, range included, comes to what was recorded than “no change” does (0 = no better, 1 = perfect). Errors: the most likely value against what was recorded, per state or region per quarter.
Share of the 18 inside the 80% range, every quarter scored. Hollow: Backtest. Filled: Published bulletins. One point is added each quarter. Dashed line: 80% intended.
Spotlight
Air and drone strikes in fighting
Recorded events by month, January 2024 – September 2026; past events only, no forecast
Peak month: April 2026 (144). Busiest state or region, July–September 2026: Magway (67).
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What changed in this bulletin. Data: the MCARI dataset, 2021–2026 edition (v1.0), to 30 September 2026, in place of release v1.1 and live rows. No change to the model, targets or method.
Cite as MCARI (2026). MCARI Forecast Bulletin No. 2: October–December 2026. Myanmar Conflict Analysis Research Institute.